Probability Related Riddles
Probability Related Riddles
- The Box
- There is an empty box, and an unlimited supply of balls beside it.
Each period of time, two fresh balls are put into the box, and one ball from
the box is taken out and thrown away. The first time period is an hour,
the second is 30 minutes, the third is 15 minutes, etc.
After two hours, an infinite number of operations took place, and the process
is terminated. Q: How many balls are in the box?
A: It depends. If for example the ball removed in each period is one of the
two just put in to the box, then the answer is that an infinity of balls
are in the box after two hours. However, if the ball removed is one of the
balls which has been in the box for the longest period of time, then the
answer is that the box is empty.
The question now is what happens if the ball removed is chosen randomly
from the balls in the box?
- The Envelopes
- A prize show involves the participant choosing one envelope of money
out of two. The two envelopes contain sums of money, one holding 10 times
as much as the other one. After the participant chooses one envelope, it
is opened the money in it is counted. Now the participant is always
granted a grace period in which he/she may switch
envelopes. One line of argumentation says: The participant has in hand
$x. Since the participant had no way to know in advance which envelope
contains more money, there is a 50% chance that the other envelope holds
$10x and a 50% chance that it holds $x/10. This means that by switching
the participant can increase his/her expected prize 5.5 times, therefore
the participant should always switch.
A simple argument of symmetry suggests that the envelopes should be equally
promising.
Q: What should the participant do?
- The Strings
- A bag contains a hundred strings. I randomly pick two string ends,
tie them together and put them back in the bag. I repeat this until no
string ends remain.
Q: What is the expectation of the number of loops in the bag?
To be continued.